With the Friday jobs data failing to meet estimates, how low can the market go, before the bulls have to throw in the towel?
I've already highlighted the 60min cycle in the earlier post, so lets skip right to the daily...
SP' daily, near term
A very simple chart, but there are two points to note. First, the trend since October - linked to the November low, is STILL intact. It currently allows SP' 1380 without breaking. Second, the 50day MA at 1370 is a primary moving average from which the market could bounce.
So, the daily offers two very clear levels of 1380 and 1370. In the scheme of things, that is a mere 2% leeway for the bulls. Arguably a break into the 1360s would significantly threaten the overall bullish case for Sp'1440>.
Sp' weekly, 2yr
The weekly allows a drop to around 1370 - last summers peak, with the 10MA around 1375/70.
Arguably, even a drop to 1350 this coming week would not violate the primary trend on the weekly cycle.
SP' monthly
The monthly is not much use for very small near term moves, but again, its important to keep things in perspective. The primary cycle is still UP, only a red close end April would suggest something is perhaps changing.
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Right now, my best guess would indeed be the 1380s at the immediate open, a few more trading hours could easily trend the market down to 1375/70. If market can rapidly break into the 1360s...and if the subsequent bounce fails at the 10MA on the 60min cycle, then....bulls have real problems.
One thing is for sure, Monday morning will be....dynamic.
I've already highlighted the 60min cycle in the earlier post, so lets skip right to the daily...
SP' daily, near term
A very simple chart, but there are two points to note. First, the trend since October - linked to the November low, is STILL intact. It currently allows SP' 1380 without breaking. Second, the 50day MA at 1370 is a primary moving average from which the market could bounce.
So, the daily offers two very clear levels of 1380 and 1370. In the scheme of things, that is a mere 2% leeway for the bulls. Arguably a break into the 1360s would significantly threaten the overall bullish case for Sp'1440>.
Sp' weekly, 2yr
The weekly allows a drop to around 1370 - last summers peak, with the 10MA around 1375/70.
Arguably, even a drop to 1350 this coming week would not violate the primary trend on the weekly cycle.
SP' monthly
The monthly is not much use for very small near term moves, but again, its important to keep things in perspective. The primary cycle is still UP, only a red close end April would suggest something is perhaps changing.
-
Right now, my best guess would indeed be the 1380s at the immediate open, a few more trading hours could easily trend the market down to 1375/70. If market can rapidly break into the 1360s...and if the subsequent bounce fails at the 10MA on the 60min cycle, then....bulls have real problems.
One thing is for sure, Monday morning will be....dynamic.
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