Tired...but still watching

Whilst the many doomers continue to talk about everything from the next 'imminent' flash crash to WW3 in March, the main market had a broadly up day. Again, every minor down cycle is being bought up.

Notably. again though, both IWM and the Transports are failing to share in this 'to da moon' adventure.

Mr VIX is still primed for some kind of very short term mini-surge. It would be a classic cruel tease to the bears to see VIX hit the 23/25 range...-with sp'1320/00, only to then max out, and decline all the way into late April, maybe even setting a new low of 14/13.

Shiny things

Silver had a very strong day. It is clearly having a strong upcycle on both the daily and weekly cycle. From the biggest perspective, the 20 year chart shows that Silver is either in a mid-term decline to 20, or is already in a bull flag, and is about to break into the 40s. Regardless of which, the long term trend is..past the moon and into the next Galaxy. Silver remains the ultimate trade of the century.

Arguably, if we see Silver over 43/45...its going to make a third attempt to break the big $50 level, and I'd guess it'll manage it. In which case, all sorts of things might start to happen as the metal-bears cause a very severe stop-cascade upward into the 60s, even 70s by late May.

Wednesday

We have more econ-data - the GDP (probably revised a touch lower), and Benny will be addressing the house financial services committee - which will get near blanket coverage on the clown channels.

*news today that the board will sit this Thursday, and decide if the CDS can trigger. Will they consider a near 80% cut in the bond value as a default, or will they pretend (at the behest of the ECB) that its all still fine and dandy in EU bond market land?

good wishes